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Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.
Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing
China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing
"I predict that the next 10 years will be the Decade of Debt. It will not end well," Laffer, who is President at investment and wealth advisory Laffer Tengler Investments, told CNBC. As a share of the global gross domestic product, debt has risen to 336%. This compares to an average debt-to-GDP ratio of 110% in 2012 for advanced economies, and 35% for emerging economies. It was 334% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the most recent global debt monitor report by the Institute of International Finance.
Persons: it's, Arthur Laffer, Laffer Organizations: Investments, CNBC, Institute of International Finance
China's economy has crawled out of the pandemic far below the pace of what most analysts expected, and if policymakers don't step in with sufficient support in 2024, a "debt-deflation spiral" could ensue. Deflation and falling stocksThe researchers said China's leadership has failed to address the lopsided supply and demand dynamics in particular. Meanwhile, deflation has crushed corporate earnings and stock prices in China, as well as wage growth and tax revenues. Nominal GDP grew at 4.6% in 2023, 0.6 points below real growth. "The economy could fall into a debt-deflation spiral without adequate policy support."
Persons: Gene Ma, Phoebe Feng, Ma, Feng, Banks Organizations: Wall Street, Institute of International Finance, CSI, People's Bank of Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China
watch nowSome Davos participants are already preparing their business for a potential Republican leader in the White House. "Considering what happened when President Trump was in office, his main interest is trade. He added that his company is allocating more resources to their operations in the United States so they can protect themselves against any trade disputes. "We have to produce locally, especially in the United States ... We have scenarios to be able to respond to that leadership change," he added. The United States is one of the main markets for Suntory, which is looking to expand its sales beyond China.
Persons: Donald Trump, State Rex Tillerson, Nicholas Kamm, I've, Tim Adams, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Joe Biden, Takeshi Niinami, Bill Winters, Biden Organizations: State, Economic, AFP, Getty, Institute of International Finance, CNBC, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Trump, Democratic, Suntory, Congress, Standard Chartered, U.S Locations: Davos, Switzerland, DAVOS, United States, Swiss, Iowa, The Iowa, China, U.S, Washington, Beijing
Russia has increasingly had to turn to a so-called "ghost fleet" of aging tankers to ship oil and avoid the cap. Panama, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Liberia have allowed some of those ships to carry their flags, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence and oil analysts. Lloyd's List Intelligence has said nearly 40% of the about 535 dark-fleet tankers have registered ownership via companies incorporated in the Marshall Islands. It also seeks to give leverage to countries buying oil outside the price-cap coalition to get discounted oil from Russia. The group is asking Liberia and the Marshall Islands to increase awareness among those in the trade that its flag should not be used for tankers transporting oil priced above the cap.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lindsey Whyte, John Berrigan, Brian Nelson, Timothy Gardner, Simon Webb, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Marshall, Intelligence, Britain's Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, EU, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Liberia, Marshall Islands, Panama, Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, China, India, Republic, Marshall, Washington, British
The South American country's markets are closed on Monday for a local holiday, so will only fully trade on Tuesday. Overseas-listed sovereign bonds and some equities will trade, mainly in Europe and the United States. In his first speech Milei pledged speedy reforms to fix an economy mired in crisis. If Milei can convince the market that the chainsaw (fiscal discipline) is the heart and soul of his presidency then bonds rally," he said. But he still faces a divided Congress where his Liberty Advances bloc only has a small share of seats.
Persons: Javier Milei's, Sergio Massa, Juan Manuel Pazos, Milei, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Martin Castellano, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Gletir, Gustavo Ber, Jorgelina, Walter Bianchi, Jorge Otaola, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Peronist, FX, Institute of International Finance, Liberty, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Argentine, American, Europe, United States, Buenos Aires, Rosario
U.S. voters care more about rising prices than jobs: IIF
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. voters care more about rising prices than jobs: IIFTim Adams of the Institute of International Finance is concerned congressional dysfunction in the U.S. will continue to handicap the ability to address ballooning debt in the long run.
Persons: Tim Adams Organizations: U.S, Institute of International Finance Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPrivate sector is ready to finance climate change but is worried about green washing: IIFTim Adams of the Institute of International Finance says there is "market failure" in climate financing, and believes public institutions need to play a bigger role in certifying the legitimacy of climate projects.
Persons: Tim Adams Organizations: Institute of International Finance
Investors arrive to the election looking at an economy in recession as a crippling drought hit the key agricultural sector. The gap to the official rate is above 150%. On the line is the survival of the country's $43 billion program with the International Monetary Fund and the possibility that Argentina defaults on its debt for a 10th time. "Dollarization would not cure the main issue in Argentina, which is a really large fiscal problem." "Debt does not need to be an immediate priority," said Khan, who doesn't expect dollarization to top the near-term list either.
Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Martin Cossarini, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Alejandro di Bernardo, Bernardo, Milei, Massa, Gabriel Rubinstein, Elijah Oliveros, Rosen, Zulfi Ali, Shamaila Khan, Khan, Hans Humes, Humes, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Susan Fenton Organizations: el Cambio, REUTERS, NEW, International Monetary Fund, Jupiter Asset, Bullrich, WE, JPMorgan, China, Institute of International Finance, IMF, America, PGIM, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Massa, Greylock Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Washington
High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech
High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech
BoE's Bailey says future rate decisions will be 'tight'
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey attends a press conference for the Monetary Policy Report August 2023, at the Bank of England in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. Bailey echoed recent comments from other BoE officials who have stressed they are keeping their options open for future rate decisions after the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to halt its run of back-to-back rate hikes in September. Only a quarter of economists polled by Reuters late last month thought the MPC would vote to raise Bank Rate again on Nov. 2. "The last mile really does lean heavily on... restrictive policy," Bailey said, adding the economic outlook appeared "very subdued". Britain's potential growth rate - the pace at which the economy can grow without generating excess inflation - was "substantially less" than in the past, something that would continue to weigh on monetary policy, Bailey said.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, Alastair Grant, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, BoE, Huw Pill, Ben Broadbent, Balazs Koranyi, Andy Bruce, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Rights, Reuters, Institute of International Finance, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Rights MARRAKECH, Morocco, Marrakech
Klaas Knot, chair of the Financial Stability Board, arrives for the G20 leaders' summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. "Why did we not see these pockets of hidden leverage? That, I think, is still the main target of our work in the NBFI space going forward," Knot said. "In general the massive change in the interest rate environment, so far so good, there has not been any systemic rippling of negative effects into the financial sector," Knot told the Institute of International Finance annual meeting. Meanwhile, AI could have tangible benefits and present some risks to the financial system, he said.
Persons: Klaas, Willy Kurniawan, Klaas Knot, Huw Jones, Alex Richardson, Alexander Smith, Jane Merriman Organizations: Board, REUTERS, UBS Group, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Swiss, Credit Suisse, European Central Bank, policymaker, Institute of International Finance, Bank of England, Authority, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, Silicon, Dutch
China’s timid bank buying sends rescue signals
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The call was partly answered on Wednesday evening by Central Huijin Investment, though not quite in the way it was hoped. The state fund boosted its controlling stakes in the Big Four lenders by just a few basis points. It spent a 477 million yuan ($65 million) on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SS), (1398.HK), China Construction Bank (601939.SS), (0939.HK) and Bank of China (601988.SS), (3988.HK), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS), (1288.HK). It’s a tiny amount but Central Huijin said it plans to keep adding over to the next six months to its holdings already worth 2.5 trillion yuan. The state fund is the biggest shareholder in Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China.
Persons: Huijin, Central Huijin, Xi Jinping’s, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Central Huijin Investment, Big, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, HK, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, outflows, of International Finance, Huijin Investment, Agricultural Bank of, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, China, Beijing, Central, Hong Kong, China’s, Bank, Agricultural Bank of China
The global debt-to-GDP ratio now sits at around 336%, which is up from 334% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the report said. The ratio had experienced seven consecutive quarters of decline, before resuming its upward trajectory in the first half of 2023. The stock of global debt rose $10 trillion in the first half of 2023, bringing it to a new record high of $307 trillion, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance released Tuesday. Worldwide spikes in inflation were the main factor causing the decline in debt ratio, helped by higher borrowing costs and tighter lending standards. Consumer debt meanwhile remains "largely manageable" in mature markets, the IIF said, with the household debt ratio dropping to its lowest level in two decades in the first half of 2023.
Persons: Organizations: Institute of International Finance, Federal, Group Locations: U.S, Japan, France, China, India, Brazil
The financial services trade group said in a report that global debt in dollar terms had risen by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. It said the latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for a second straight quarter to 336%. Prior to 2023, the debt ratio had been declining for seven quarters. Slower growth, alongside a deceleration in price increases, were behind the debt ratio rise, the report said. "As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase," the IIF said.
Persons: Florence Lo, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Alexander Smith Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: United States, Japan, Britain, France, China, India, Brazil, Korea, Thailand, U.S
An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. A monthly report from the Institute of International Finance showed non-residents funneled $14.9 billion out of China stocks, the largest monthly outflow on records back to 2015, while Chinese debt saw $5.1 billion in outflows. The broad MSCI stock and currency emerging market indexes posted in August their largest monthly drops since February. Equities fell across all geographical regions while debt posted inflows in Asia, Latam and emerging Europe. Year-to-date numbers through August show a $13.1 billion outflow from China while emerging markets ex-China has seen $139.5 billion in non-resident portfolio inflows.
Persons: Aly, Jonathan Fortun, Fortun, Rodrigo Campos, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, China, EMs, Institute of International Finance, China's, Reuters Graphics Equity, Emerging, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, outflows, Emerging Asia, Latin, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Europe
Wriston's financial innovations helped create the modern Eurodollar market — a vast offshore realm of financial transactions in US dollars happening outside of US borders. As he explained in 1979, the "current banking network, with its Euromarkets and its automated payments system" seemed dull and technical, but it had immense political consequences. Wriston helped rebuild this clanking machine into an engine of transformation, welding disjointed national markets into a true world economy. It began to develop a new kind of sanction, which used its control of "dollar clearing" to force international banks to implement US policy outside its borders. Instead of the stateless, government-less world that Wriston envisioned, the internationalization of the US dollar became the precedent for a massive transformation of America's financial power.
Persons: Walter Wriston, Wriston, Friedrich Hayek's, Banks, Eric Sepkes, Eric Helleiner, Henry Holt, Helleiner, Henry Farrell, Johns Hopkins SAIS, Friedrich Schiedel, Abraham Newman Organizations: Citibank, Staff, of, Technology, Bankers, JPMorgan, Warburg, Federal Reserve, buccaneers, US Department of, Treasury, SWIFT, Society, Worldwide Interbank, Johns Hopkins, Politics, The Washington Post, School of Foreign Service, Government Department, Georgetown University, Henry Holt and Company Locations: London, of London, Europe, Argentina, New York, United States, Eurodollars, Italy, Japan, Soviet Union, America, Iran, Russia, Ukraine
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that while the U.S. economy is doing well, it would be a "huge mistake" to believe that it will last for years. Healthy consumer balance sheets and rising wages are supporting the economy for now, but there are risks ahead, said Dimon, who was speaking at a financial conference in New York. "To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake," he said. But the U.S. economy has proven resilient, leading more economists to expect that a recession might be avoided. "If and when you have a recession, which you're eventually going to have, you'll have a real normal credit cycle," Dimon said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, Topping Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Institute of International Finance, JPMorgan Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, New York, Ukraine
China's capital exodus is among the worst seen by emerging markets, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. That's as global investors have grown wary of autocratic regimes, he tweeted on Sunday. "The change in global capital flows is seismic. "But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies." Global markets look at China in a new light," Brooks said in a separate X post.
Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Ukraine that's, Adam Posen Organizations: IIF, Service, Institute of International Finance, hemorrhaging, CSI, Administration of Foreign Exchange, EPFR, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, outflows
Argentina should peg the peso to Brazil's real, not the US dollar, to deal with exchange-rate instability and hyperinflation, an economist said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil," Robin Brooks said. "If Argentina wants a currency peg so badly - Dollarization is after all just a peg - peg to Brazil. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome market experts have also backed the idea of Argentina potentially adopting the US currency – economist Steve Hanke recently called for the nation to mothball its central bank and dollarize. Brooks' latest comments come after he suggested earlier that Argentina needs a recession to fix its crashing currency, not dollarization.
Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Javier Milei, Steve Hanke Organizations: Service, Institute of International Finance, South, greenback Locations: Argentina, Brazil, Wall, Silicon, South American
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe pressure for bank consolidation will grow independently of regulators, says Charles DallaraCharles Dallara, Former Institute of International Finance CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk new banking regulations, banking consolidation and more.
Persons: Charles Dallara Charles Dallara Organizations: Institute of International Finance
"China is not trying to supplant the IMF," said Matthew Mingey, a senior analyst with Rhodium Group. "When China has allowed these swap lines to be tapped, in many cases it's to unlock an IMF bailout or ensure an IMF programme stays on track." In turn, China is a major customer for Argentina's soy, corn and poultry exports. "China has every incentive to tightly manage Argentine drawings under the swap lines as the risks are very high." The swap line that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) signed in 2009 with Buenos Aires was the first agreed with a Latin American country.
Persons: Matthew Mingey, Buenos, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Sergio Massa, Martin Castellano, Alejandro Werner, Werner, Mingey, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Jorge Otaola, Joe Cash, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, World Bank, TAG, People's Bank of China, Buenos Aires, Economy, Institute of International Finance, Relations, Georgetown Americas Institute, Western Hemisphere Department, Thomson Locations: China, Argentina, Beijing, Washington, Latin America, Buenos Aires, U.S, Buenos, American, United States, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Ukraine
Firms don't want to raise wages because they're worried about a recession, so you pay workers instead. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. And now, businesses are trying to avoid making the larger wages those tips have augmented their responsibility, as the economy cools. Jonathan Morduch — a professor of public policy and economics at New York University — told the Wall Street Journal that as businesses prepare for a potential recession, "they don't want to lock into higher wages." "Businesses are happy to let workers earn more from tips, especially when there's no pressure to raise the tipped minimum," Morduch told the Wall Street Journal.
Persons: you've, they're, It's, Scheherezade Rehman, Jonathan Morduch —, New York University —, Andy Kiersz, Jacob Zinkula, Laurence Kotlikoff, what's, Morduch Organizations: Service, George Washington University, Wall Street, New York University, Boston University Locations: Wall, Silicon
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